Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 129,994
2 South Dakota 125,326
3 Rhode Island 115,974
4 Utah 113,663
5 Arizona 110,343
6 Tennessee 109,560
7 Oklahoma 105,251
8 Iowa 105,069
9 Wisconsin 104,776
10 Arkansas 104,196
11 Nebraska 102,605
12 Kansas 100,216
13 Alabama 98,785
14 Indiana 97,352
15 Mississippi 97,284
16 South Carolina 96,149
17 Idaho 94,447
18 Nevada 94,142
19 Wyoming 92,492
20 Illinois 92,463
21 Montana 91,890
22 Louisiana 90,743
23 Georgia 89,676
24 Texas 89,059
25 California 88,906
26 Kentucky 88,815
27 New Mexico 86,673
28 Florida 86,123
29 Delaware 86,111
30 New Jersey 85,389
31 Minnesota 84,466
32 Missouri 83,342
33 Massachusetts 81,824
34 Ohio 81,048
35 New York 80,647
36 North Carolina 79,909
37 Alaska 77,600
38 Connecticut 76,263
39 Colorado 72,948
40 West Virginia 71,846
41 Pennsylvania 71,163
42 Virginia 65,361
43 Michigan 63,476
44 Maryland 61,886
45 District of Columbia 55,686
46 New Hampshire 53,245
47 Washington 44,037
48 Puerto Rico 41,369
49 Oregon 35,970
50 Maine 32,055
51 Vermont 22,675
52 Hawaii 19,003

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 New Jersey 413
2 South Carolina 390
3 New York 380
4 Alaska 346
5 New Hampshire 338
6 Rhode Island 337
7 Georgia 302
8 North Carolina 296
9 Florida 291
10 Utah 274
11 Pennsylvania 254
12 Virginia 248
13 Idaho 227
14 Wyoming 227
15 Kentucky 225
16 Massachusetts 223
17 Delaware 209
18 Montana 198
19 Arizona 197
20 California 193
21 Alabama 187
22 Iowa 187
23 South Dakota 186
24 Oklahoma 185
25 Colorado 184
26 Washington 176
27 Ohio 174
28 Mississippi 173
29 North Dakota 171
30 Kansas 166
31 West Virginia 162
32 Connecticut 155
33 New Mexico 155
34 Vermont 153
35 Tennessee 149
36 Illinois 147
37 District of Columbia 141
38 Wisconsin 138
39 Missouri 134
40 Nevada 129
41 Indiana 126
42 Minnesota 125
43 Maryland 124
44 Nebraska 124
45 Michigan 122
46 Arkansas 121
47 Texas 121
48 Louisiana 104
49 Maine 102
50 Oregon 98
51 Puerto Rico 69
52 Hawaii 24

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 2,558
2 New York 2,362
3 Massachusetts 2,275
4 Rhode Island 2,234
5 Mississippi 2,194
6 Connecticut 2,102
7 Arizona 2,101
8 South Dakota 2,087
9 Louisiana 2,023
10 Alabama 1,922
11 North Dakota 1,922
12 Pennsylvania 1,831
13 Indiana 1,824
14 Arkansas 1,763
15 Illinois 1,759
16 New Mexico 1,708
17 Iowa 1,686
18 Michigan 1,626
19 Tennessee 1,605
20 South Carolina 1,583
21 Nevada 1,560
22 Kansas 1,551
23 Georgia 1,498
24 Texas 1,440
25 Ohio 1,421
26 District of Columbia 1,405
27 Florida 1,372
28 Delaware 1,361
29 Missouri 1,317
30 Maryland 1,267
31 Montana 1,251
32 West Virginia 1,247
33 California 1,223
34 Wisconsin 1,171
35 Minnesota 1,147
36 Wyoming 1,143
37 Nebraska 1,111
38 Oklahoma 1,039
39 Colorado 1,035
40 North Carolina 1,030
41 Idaho 1,022
42 Kentucky 1,015
43 New Hampshire 845
44 Virginia 830
45 Washington 639
46 Puerto Rico 607
47 Utah 565
48 Oregon 510
49 Maine 487
50 Alaska 378
51 Vermont 309
52 Hawaii 300

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Arizona 14
2 Delaware 14
3 Georgia 14
4 Kansas 13
5 Alabama 12
6 Missouri 11
7 California 10
8 Rhode Island 10
9 Nevada 9
10 New Jersey 9
11 Florida 8
12 Iowa 8
13 Massachusetts 8
14 North Carolina 8
15 Wyoming 8
16 Mississippi 7
17 Pennsylvania 7
18 South Carolina 7
19 New Mexico 6
20 New York 6
21 Ohio 6
22 Arkansas 5
23 District of Columbia 5
24 Kentucky 5
25 Louisiana 5
26 Oklahoma 5
27 Tennessee 5
28 Washington 5
29 Connecticut 4
30 Idaho 4
31 Indiana 4
32 Maryland 4
33 Michigan 4
34 Nebraska 4
35 West Virginia 4
36 Illinois 3
37 New Hampshire 3
38 Texas 3
39 Wisconsin 3
40 Alaska 2
41 Colorado 2
42 Montana 2
43 Puerto Rico 2
44 Virginia 2
45 Maine 1
46 Minnesota 1
47 North Dakota 1
48 Oregon 1
49 South Dakota 1
50 Utah 1
51 Vermont 1
52 Hawaii 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Crowley Colorado 319,089 1 99
Chattahoochee Georgia 275,144 2 99
Bent Colorado 263,224 3 99
Lincoln Arkansas 239,942 4 99
Lake Tennessee 237,885 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 127,325 222 92
Richland South Carolina 94,848 1199 61
York South Carolina 88,701 1504 52
Orange California 81,299 1845 41
Pierce Washington 41,400 2899 7

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Gove Kansas 8,346 1 99
Jerauld South Dakota 7,948 2 99
Iron Wisconsin 6,858 3 99
Galax city Virginia 6,775 4 99
Buffalo South Dakota 6,626 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 1,186 1934 38
Orange California 1,160 1965 37
Richland South Carolina 1,147 1979 37
York South Carolina 1,082 2065 34
Pierce Washington 580 2684 14

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons